Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance & Closed Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
- Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Document & Geopolitical Considerations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018
All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Risk and A Prudent Memory
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise of him to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.
